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Model what a creator budget returns before you commit it — views, clicks, conversions, cost per acquisition and ROAS for YouTube integrations and Instagram Stories across six markets. Every output is a range, and every benchmark behind it is graded for how solid the underlying data actually is.
Indexed off US creator pricing. Note this runs opposite to paid media: US auction CPMs are the highest in the world, but European creator CPMs are not. A German or British creator charges a minimum fee against a smaller audience, which raises the price per thousand views.
Views, not followers. You buy impressions, and follower count predicts them badly — a 200k-follower channel averaging 12k views costs the same as a 12k-view creator and delivers the same.
Paid to creators only — excludes agency fee and production.
| Metric | Downside | Central | Upside |
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Because the underlying data does not support one number. Published creator CPMs differ between sources by a factor of three to five. A tool that hides that spread is not more accurate, it is just more confident.
YouTube 45–60s integrations and Instagram Stories are what we plan, buy and measure most often, so they are the two we can model honestly. There is no credible public CPM for YouTube Shorts or Twitch sponsorships, so we leave them out rather than invent them.
You are buying impressions. Follower count is a poor predictor of them — view-to-follower ratios vary by an order of magnitude between channels. Pricing on average views is also how the maths works: CPM is cost per thousand views.
Agency fee, production, usage rights, organic spillover, brand lift and repeat purchase. It models a first-order media outcome. Everything above the line is upside you should not plan on.
The conversion side rests on solid data. The cost side does not. Where a number is weak we say so with a grade, and the forecast checks itself against published market rates — if it drifts far outside them, it tells you which input is probably wrong.
We run the campaign and measure it. Every placement ships with a tracking link and a creator promo code, so the forecast we send you is calibrated on delivered results rather than public averages.
Methodology
Most calculators in this category present modelled assumptions as measurements. This one grades each constant instead, because the honest finding is that the cost side of influencer marketing rests on much thinner evidence than the conversion side.
| Constant | Value used | Grade | Collected | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPM — YouTube 45–60s integration (US) | $20–35 | C | 2026 | Social Cloud buying range, consistent with the upper half of Modash ($15–35) and Influencers-Time ($20–40). Niche moves this more than anything else: finance and B2B run $30–45, gaming and lifestyle $15–25. |
| CPM — Instagram Stories (US) | $22–45 | C | 2026 | Stories price above a YouTube integration per thousand impressions — consistent with Modash ($20–50) and OMR (€20–50). Other rate lists disagree by a factor of three; there is no published consensus. |
| Market index — US / CA / UK / DE / FR / PL | 1.00 / 0.90 / 1.15 1.25 / 1.10 / 0.80 | C | 2026 | Social Cloud estimate — no public data exists. The last cross-country creator CPM study was published in 2017. Deliberately the inverse of paid-media indices: creator deals carry minimum fees, and in Europe that fee lands on a smaller audience, which raises CPM. Adjust to your own rate cards. |
| Creator size factor by average views | 1.15 / 1.00 / 0.92 / 0.86 | C | — | Volume-discount curve. Published tier data is follower-based and self-contradictory, so it is not usable here. |
| Click-through rate — defaults | YT 3.0% · IG Stories 1.0% | C | 2026 | Social Cloud planning defaults. No published influencer CTR by format exists in either direction. This input moves the forecast more than any other — replace it with your own measured rate as soon as you have one. |
| Click → install (creator referral) | iOS 25% · Android 30% | C | — | Referral clicks after a 45–60s integration carry far higher intent than the browse traffic behind published store conversion rates (AppTweak: iOS 8.6%, Android 16.2%). |
| Click → purchase, e-commerce | 2.2% (1.4–3.4%) | B | 2025 | Smart Insights / Dynamic Yield site-wide average 2.9%. Set near that level rather than below it because the AOV default is a mid-market basket, and lower-priced baskets convert better than the blended average. |
| Click → signup, SaaS | 1.5% (0.8–3.0%) | B | Dec 2025 | First Page Sage — paid-channel visitor-to-lead is 0.70%; creator referral is set above it, below warm traffic. |
| Average order value, DTC (default) | $95 median | A | 2025–26 | Triple Whale ($61 paid-channel median, 40,000+ DTC brands) and Littledata ($85 Shopify median). The widely quoted $312 from enterprise-Shopify samples is roughly the 90th percentile, not a median. |
| Sanity-check reference — CPI casual games | iOS $0.80–3.50 Android $0.14–2.00 × market index | A | Feb 24–Feb 25 | Liftoff / Singular — 2.4bn installs, $11.9bn spend, globally averaged. Scaled by the market index above, because a global average is not a fair yardstick for a single country. Used only to flag an implausible forecast, never as an input. |
| Scenario band on CTR and conversion | ×0.7 / ×1.0 / ×1.4 | C | — | Modelling choice, not a measured distribution. Downside and upside stack every assumption in one direction, so both are corner cases. |
On app ROAS. Revenue per install defaults to a payback-window figure, not day one. Casual games recover roughly 47% of install cost by D30 — a ROAS near 1.0 at your payback horizon is a healthy campaign, not a failing one.
On e-commerce ROAS. This is first-order ROAS only. It ignores repeat purchase, and for most DTC brands that is where creator campaigns actually pay back — a figure near 1.0 on the first order can still be a strong programme once returning customers are counted. Enter your contribution margin per order rather than gross AOV if you want the stricter view.
Creator media is not paid media. A creator CPI running somewhat above your paid-UA benchmark is normal, not a failure: you are buying attention, trust and content you can reuse, not just an impression. The forecast only speaks up when the gap is wide enough to suggest a wrong input.
Public market data, compiled September 2026. Sources span February 2024 to September 2026 — check the “Collected” column before comparing them to each other.
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